CFM INDOSUEZ Wealth Management - 2020 Annual Report

2020 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND 2021 FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK MACROECONOM I C ANALY S I S 16 The Covid-19 pandemic plunged the entire planet into an unprecedented situation both in terms of configuration and scale. At CA Indosuez (Switzerland) SA, as in all countries in which the Indosuez group operates, our teams displayed efforts and adaptability on par with the challenge, ensuring the continuity of business and guaranteeing the highest quality of service. Rest assured that, in all our regions, today and in the future, you can count on the deep commitment of our staff, the extensive know-how of our experts and the resilience of our organisation tomeet all your needs. The special attention required by the current economic and financial context, combined with the deep transformations underway, makes this commitment even stronger. As Confucius said, “Only in winter does the pine tree show its true strength”. It is undeniable that 2021 started under better auspices than last year, capitalisingon solid fundamentals. Indeed, despite the persisting uncertainties, the development of efficient vaccines against Covid-19 has given households and businesses hope of a return to normal life. Regarding the financial markets, given the excellent company results reported for the fourth quarter of 2020, there does not seem to be any doubt about the Vincent Manuel Chief Investment Officer Indosuez Wealth Management origin of the euphoria on the equity markets at the start of this year. More globally, however, it appears that the financial markets are driven by other factors these days. We call this the VISA syndrome: Vaccines - Inflation - Stimulus - Accommodation: - Vaccines: the varying paces of the vaccine rollouts are currently a determining factor of growth outlooks for 2021, with a clear advantage to the US and the UK, and a eurozone that is lagging behind, but expecting a more widespread rebound in the second half of the year; - Inflation: in the space of a few months investors have switched from fears of recession to fears of a return of inflation, driving long-term rates up. Undoubtedly at the risk of making too much of it: after all, beyond the short-term base effects that we anticipate, unemployment remains high and the deflationary pressure of the previous decade has not disappeared, but a new economic policy can change the configuration; - Stimulus: a historical USD1.9 trillion stimulus package was voted through in the United States, with the economy already in a rebound phase and rising to the challenge of meeting the mid-year vaccination target; a context resulting both in higher growth expectations and fears of excessive fiscal support.